To build a 13-week cash flow forecast in Nigeria, list your actual bank balance, project every cash receipt and payment week by week for the next 13 weeks, then update it every Friday with real figures. It takes about two hours to set up and shows a cash gap weeks before your bank balance does.
With the average maximum bank lending rate at 32.62% in September 2026 (CBN data), borrowing to plug a surprise gap is expensive. Knowing the gap early is cheaper.
Why does a 13-week forecast matter in 2026?
An annual budget tells you where the year should end. A 13-week forecast tells you whether you can pay salaries in week 6. The two answer different questions, and only the second one keeps the business open.
The CBN cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points to 23% on 22 September 2026, the biggest cut since 2006. Lending rates did not follow. CBN Money Market Indicators show the average maximum lending rate rose to 32.62% in September from 29.20% in August, while the average prime rate moved from 17.86% to 19.04%.
So the rate cut has not made short-term borrowing cheap. Cash you can see coming is worth more than credit you hope to arrange.
What goes into a 13-week forecast?
Thirteen weeks is one quarter. It is long enough to catch a tax payment, a payroll run and a supplier deadline, and short enough to forecast with real information instead of guesses. Use one spreadsheet with a column per week and these rows:
- Opening cash. Your actual bank balance on Monday morning, taken from the bank statement and not from the ledger.
- Cash in. Customer receipts by invoice, using the date you expect payment and not the due date. Add other inflows such as loan drawdowns or asset sales only when they are signed.
- Cash out, fixed. Salaries, rent, loan repayments and insurance, on their real dates.
- Cash out, taxes. VAT and withholding tax fall due by the 21st of the following month. PAYE falls due earlier, so check your state's date. Add company income tax payments where they apply.
- Cash out, variable. Supplier payments, fuel, logistics and project costs, based on purchase orders already raised.
- Closing cash and minimum buffer. Closing cash is opening cash plus inflows minus outflows. Set a floor, for example two weeks of payroll and fixed costs, and flag any week that falls below it.
How do you build it, step by step?
- Step 1: Start from the bank. Pull today's balance for every account, including dollar and domiciliary accounts. Convert foreign balances at the rate you can actually sell at.
- Step 2: Build receipts from the debtor list. Take the ageing report and, for each large customer, write the week you honestly expect the money. If a customer paid 20 days late in each of the last three quarters, forecast 20 days late. Our guide on how to manage trade receivables in Nigeria covers how to tighten this.
- Step 3: Load the payments you cannot move. Payroll, PAYE, loan instalments and statutory dates go in first. Missing a tax date adds interest and penalties on top of the cash you already owed.
- Step 4: Add supplier payments by priority. Rank suppliers into those who stop supplying if unpaid, those who charge penalties, and those who can wait. This ranking is your lever when a week looks short.
- Step 5: Show the gap and the fix. Where closing cash falls below your floor, write the action next to it: chase a named debtor, delay a named payment, or draw a named facility. A forecast with no actions is only a report.
- Step 6: Roll it every Friday. Replace the week just ended with actuals, add a new week 13, and note the variance. After four weeks you will see whether you forecast receipts too optimistically, which is the usual error.
What does a simple forecast look like?
The numbers below are illustrative, for a company with a monthly payroll of ₦40 million.
- Week 1: opening 55, cash in 30, cash out 38, closing 47 (₦ million).
- Week 2: opening 47, cash in 25, cash out 22, closing 50 (₦ million).
- Week 3: opening 50, cash in 18, cash out 62, closing 6 (₦ million).
- Week 4: opening 6, cash in 40, cash out 20, closing 26 (₦ million).
Week 3 holds payroll and the tax remittances together. Closing cash of ₦6 million sits far below a two-week buffer. A monthly view would have averaged this out and hidden it. Seen in week 1, the fix is cheap: bring a customer's receipt forward or agree a later date with one supplier.
What does this mean for your business?
If you run a business in oil and gas, construction or trade, your receipts are lumpy and your tax and payroll dates are not. That mismatch is where short-term borrowing at 30% and above usually starts. A weekly forecast lets you decide whether to chase, defer or borrow, with time to negotiate each option.
Lenders also respond to it. A bank asked for a facility is more comfortable with a borrower who can show a rolling forecast and the actions taken on past gaps. Our note on cash-flow lending in Nigeria explains what credit teams ask to see.
Start now. With the year-end audit and January filing dates ahead, the next 13 weeks run straight through your year-end.
FAQ
How often should I update a 13-week cash flow forecast? Weekly, ideally on Friday afternoon. Replace the finished week with actual bank figures and add a new week 13 so the horizon stays fixed.
Is a 13-week forecast the same as a budget? No. A budget sets targets for the year and works on accruals. A 13-week forecast tracks only cash, week by week, and exists to show whether you can pay what is due.
What is a safe minimum cash buffer for a Nigerian company? There is no legal figure. A common rule is enough to cover two to four weeks of payroll and fixed costs. Set it from how late your customers pay and how fast you can draw on a facility.
Need help setting up a rolling cash forecast or reviewing your working capital? Contact VOG Global, Area 10, Garki, Abuja, at vog.global, and speak to our team.