Nigeria's inflation rate for September 2026 was 14.63% year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That is down from 15.39% in August and 20.98% in September 2025, and it is the fourth monthly fall in a row this year. Prices are still rising. They are rising more slowly.
The figure is good news for planning, but it needs careful reading before you build it into prices, pay reviews or your 2027 budget.
What did the NBS report for September 2026?
The numbers below come from the NBS release as reported by Nairametrics.
- Headline inflation: 14.63% year on year. On a month-on-month basis it was 0.06%, against 0.71% in August.
- Food inflation: 19.59% year on year. Food prices fell 1.55% on the month, after rising 1.02% in August.
- Core inflation: 12.95% year on year. On the month it rose 1.11%, after a 0.06% fall in August.
- Urban and rural: 15.64% in urban areas and 12.46% in rural areas.
Why did headline inflation fall while core prices rose?
Food drove the fall. A 1.55% monthly drop in food prices pulled the headline number down, even as core inflation, which leaves out volatile items such as farm produce, moved up 1.11% in the same month.
That split matters. Food is the most volatile part of the basket, so a food-led decline can reverse quickly. The core reading is closer to what your suppliers charge for transport, services and manufactured inputs, and it did not cool in September.
For context, our 12 October note on the World Bank forecast cited 15.7% inflation for 2026. September's 14.63% sits below that. Businesses that priced their 2026 budgets on the higher number now have a little room, but only if their own costs have moved the same way.
What does 14.63% inflation mean for your business?
Treat the headline rate as a reference point, not as your own cost of doing business. Four areas deserve a second look.
- Pricing. Compare the headline figure with your own input costs. If your biggest costs are imported materials, fuel or services, the core trend is the better guide. The naira was at about ₦1,333 to the dollar on 14 October, according to Nairametrics.
- Wages. A pay review pegged to 14.63% may overshoot or undershoot, depending on what your staff actually spend on. Set the review against your own payroll cost and your margin.
- Borrowing. The CBN cut its policy rate to 23% in September (see our analysis of the rate cut). With inflation at 14.63%, the gap between the two is about 8.4 percentage points. Money is still expensive in real terms.
- Contracts. Long-term supply and service contracts with fixed prices lose value when costs move. Where you can, add a price review clause tied to a stated index.
What should CFOs do with the September figure?
- Rebuild your cost forecast line by line, rather than applying one inflation rate to everything.
- Run the 2027 budget at two inflation cases, one near 14% and one above 17%, and check cash cover in both. Our guide to building a 2027 budget lists the assumptions to test.
- Review your price lists and any contracts that are more than six months old.
- Wait for the October figure, which the NBS usually publishes in mid-November, before you lock in year-end pay and pricing decisions.
FAQ
What is Nigeria's current inflation rate?
The latest NBS figure is 14.63% year on year for September 2026. The October figure is due around mid-November.
Is inflation falling in Nigeria?
Headline inflation has fallen for four consecutive months in 2026. Core inflation rose 1.11% month on month in September, so the easing is uneven.
Should I use the headline rate in my budget?
Use it as a starting point only. Your own input costs, import exposure and contract terms matter more than the national average, so test your budget against more than one case.
Need help testing your pricing, payroll or 2027 budget against current inflation? Contact VOG Global at vog.global. We are in Area 10, Garki, Abuja, and we work with finance teams across oil and gas, construction, banking, agriculture, NGOs and trade.